Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Alphabet

• Clean Energy for Data Centers: Alphabet signed a 15-year power purchase agreement with Enlight Renewable Energy for 200 MW of solar energy in Oklahoma to power its data centers starting in 2029.

• Waymo Dominates Autonomous Vehicles: Waymo has 577 registered autonomous vehicles in Texas, more than 13x Tesla’s 42 robotaxis. Capitalizing on this momentum, Waymo is also rolling out its next-gen “Ojai” robotaxi (built with Geely’s Zeekr) in major cities. While competitor narratives lean heavily on future promises, Alphabet is quietly building an insurmountable operational lead on the ground.

Autodesk: Stellar Q1 or Optical Illusion?

Autodesk dropped its Q1 FY27 earnings, and at first glance, the top-line performance looked phenomenal. Revenue jumped 18% year-over-year to $1.93B, non-GAAP EPS hit $2.99, and the business remains an absolute cash machine, with free cash flow surging 58% to $876M. Management even raised full-year FY27 guidance.

Yet, the stock slipped in after-hours trading.

Why the disconnect?

The 18% headline growth is heavily distorted by Autodesk’s transition to its new direct-transaction model. When you normalize the metrics and look at constant-currency growth adjusted for this accounting shift, core growth is projected at a much cooler 8–9% for the full year.

Simultaneously, Autodesk announced a $3.6 billion all-cash acquisition of MaintainX, an industrial maintenance and operations software provider. Strategically, this is brilliant long-term positioning, it bridges the gap between design phase software and real-world asset management, capturing a massive operational dataset to feed its industrial AI tools. We view the after-hours weakness as a classic case of the market digesting accounting noise rather than structural deterioration.

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Other Key Updates

• ASML: Japanese rival Nikon is making a targeted push to win back market share in semiconductor photolithography by undercutting ASML on price, leveraging an in-house component cost advantage to near purchase orders with major chipmakers in the US and Asia for its argon fluoride lithography equipment. While this pressures ASML’s lower-tier mature node revenues, ASML’s core investment thesis remains intact due to its absolute, unchallenged monopoly over the cutting-edge EUV and High-NA systems required for advanced AI hardware.

• Intuit: Rolled out “Analytics AI” and a beta “AI Segment Builder” within its Mailchimp marketing platform to help businesses seamlessly analyze audience data. To further enhance its e-commerce AI marketing capabilities, Mailchimp has also expanded its integrations with Anthropic’s Claude, Wix, and WooCommerce.

• Adyen: Chief Financial Officer Ethan Tandowsky is stepping down effective August 31 to pursue an opportunity outside fintech. While sections of the market were critical of Ethan regarding capital allocation strategy, core operational execution during his tenure was exceptionally strong. C-suite departures of structural executives always introduce near-term sentiment volatility, but the underlying payments engine remains fundamentally unchanged.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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AMD: Winning the Next-Gen Fabric Game

AMD has begun ramping production of its next-generation EPYC data center processor, codenamed “Venice,” utilizing TSMC’s advanced 2nm process technology. This marks the industry’s first HPC product to enter 2nm production. AMD is ramping up production in Taiwan with future expansion planned for TSMC’s Arizona facility.

AMD also announced over $10 billion in investments across the Taiwan ecosystem to co-develop next-gen 2.5D bridge interconnect technology (EFB architecture) with ASE, SPIL, and PTI, leading up to the high-volume deployment of its “Helios” rack-scale platform in H2 2026. The roadmap also introduces “Verano,” a 6th Gen EPYC processor utilizing LPDDR memory designed for power-constrained applications. CEO Lisa Su revealed that soaring demand for agentic artificial intelligence and inferencing has dramatically accelerated these server compute requirements.

INTUIT: The Software Transition Tax

Intuit delivered a modest Q3 top-line beat, with revenue reaching $8.56 billion (+10% YoY). Global Business Solutions remained the primary driver (+15% to $3.3B), powered by strong momentum in QuickBooks Online Accounting (+22% YoY). However, the Consumer segment experienced a visible deceleration, with TurboTax growing just 7% versus 11% in prior periods.

While management raised full-year FY26 revenue guidance to $21.34B–$21.37B, operating margins compressed from 56.0% to 54.7%. To offset this and streamline operations, Intuit announced a major 17% workforce reduction, which will incur $300M to $340M in restructuring charges. We will shortly publish a full earnings review and inform you if we are taking any action in our portfolio.

Alphabet: Monetization vs. CapEx Reality

Alphabet’s recent Google I/O updates highlighted multi-faceted revenue opportunities, including its new $100 AI Ultra plan tailored for developers and power users, app integrations across Gmail/YouTube, and Gemini Spark. On the corporate infrastructure side, Google Cloud partnered with Thales to establish a sovereign cloud solution in Germany.

Simultaneously, alternative ecosystem scaling is picking up speed through a massive joint venture with Blackstone, where Blackstone will invest an initial $5 billion in equity to build data center capacity powered directly by Google’s custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). By putting their custom TPU chips inside these Blackstone data centers, Google is establishing its own hardware footprint to challenge Nvidia’s monopoly on AI chips.

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ASML: The Ultimate Bottleneck in the Chip Super-Cycle

Global semiconductor supply remains incredibly tight as demand from AI, satellites, and robotics outpaces industry production—a trend ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet expects will drive a prolonged investment cycle lasting into 2028. ASML is poised to release its first batch of advanced logic and memory chips produced using its cutting-edge High Numerical Aperture (High-NA) machines within the next few months, which is expected to drastically reduce patterning costs, product defects, and cycle times.

Analysis suggests ASML’s 2027 capacity can support a >50% YoY expansion in leading-edge wafer output. Additionally, the company signed an agreement with Tata Electronics to deploy its lithography tools in an $11 billion chip fabrication plant in Gujarat, India.

Other Key Updates

• Amazon’s multi-year effort to build custom in-house hardware is gaining significant ground: both Anthropic and OpenAI have signed agreements to rent large-scale capacity on Amazon’s custom Trainium chips.

  On the industrial software side, AWS finalized a multi-year cloud expansion deal with AVEVA to host its CONNECT platform and leverage AI analytics via Amazon Bedrock.

• Allegion announced the launch of its “Campus-to-Community Student Living” solutions, a mobile-first hardware and software integration ecosystem aimed at the off-campus student housing market. Built around Schlage’s Resident Key technology integrated into Apple Wallet and Google Wallet, the platform allows end-users to seamlessly use standard smartphones and smartwatches to manage security across residences, common amenities, and campus facilities. The rollout follows successful real-world testing with property managers at the University of Oklahoma, demonstrating optimized property operations and a visible reduction in after-hours lockouts.

• Evolution AB has commenced a massive share repurchase program of up to €2 billion on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange to significantly reduce its outstanding share capital.

• Grab Holdings: Grab is consolidating the Indonesian digital lender Superbank after Singtel transfers its stake. Superbank recently posted its first full-year profit and has grown to over six million customers. It will be fully folded into Grab’s Financial Services segment, significantly expanding their digital banking footprint and cross-selling potential in Indonesia.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Fortinet

Fortinet delivered an exceptional first-quarter performance for 2026, exceeding the high end of its guidance on both revenue and profitability. Revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $1.85 billion, driven by a powerful 41% surge in product revenue to $645 million. Additionally, billings expanded 31% to $2.09 billion. While product sales grabbed the headlines, Fortinet’s recurring service revenue grew 11% to $1.21 billion.

Fortinet also posted a non-GAAP operating margin of 36%, operating cash flow of $1.08 billion (+25% YoY) and free cash flow of $1.01 billion (+26% YoY). Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 41% year-over-year to $0.82. This strong execution prompted management to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to 15% year-over-year growth, within a range of $7.71 billion to $7.87 billion. Fortinet’s expansion is fueled by two major trends: the structural merging of networking with security, and a rapidly evolving threat landscape supercharged by AI. Far from being a headwind as many assumed, AI is driving demand. Furthermore, management signaled strong confidence by executing $827 million in share repurchases during the quarter.

PayPal

During the first quarter of 2026, PayPal posted net revenue of $8.35 billion, a growth of 7% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS remained flat at $1.34, exceeding Wall Street’s $1.27 forecast. However, the earnings beat was quickly overshadowed by weak guidance for the upcoming quarter. The company expects Q2 non-GAAP EPS to slide approximately 9% year-over-year to $1.27, falling short of the $1.34 analyst expectation.

In response to persistent operational hurdles, PayPal announced a major structural restructuring, including plans to downsize the workforce by roughly 20% over the next two to three years and reorganize operations into three distinct business units: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto. Even the restructuring is slow at PayPal!

At least this reorganization is projected to unlock $1.5 billion in gross savings. PayPal reiterated its full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook to range from a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth.

That said, with TPV growing 11% but transaction margin only increasing by 3% it is obvious that PayPal has a questionable earnings quality at the moment.

Grab

Grab reported a revenue growth of 24% year-over-year to $955 million in Q1 FY26. The regional giant recorded a GAAP net profit of $120 million, compared to the $10 million net profit reported in Q1 2025, marking Grab’s second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Adjusted EBITDA surged 46% year-over-year to $154 million, with margins expanding by 250 basis points to 16.2%, despite the ongoing fuel price crisis. This profitable expansion reflects strong operating leverage across its core segments, and was supported by a 23% and 25% increase in Mobility and Deliveries GMV, respectively. Management also noted on the earnings call that new AI-powered initiatives, such as a ‘Turbo’ driving mode, has already boosted driver earnings by 23%, highlighting how technology is actively improving their business model and driving higher GMV growth.

Underpinning this momentum was a 43% surge in Financial Services revenue to $107 million, alongside a loan portfolio that more than doubled to $1.4 billion. The company also marked its first major international expansion beyond Southeast Asia by announcing the acquisition of Taiwan’s foodpanda.

AMD

AMD’s Q1 revenue grew 38% year-over-year to $10.3 billion, outperforming the $9.3 billion expected by analysts. Non-GAAP EPS rose 43% year-over-year to $1.37, beating the $1.29 consensus. The massive expansion was driven by the Data Center segment, which surged 57% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, now representing 56% of AMD’s total sales. Looking ahead, AMD issued a confident Q2 revenue guidance of $11.2 billion (up 46% year-over-year), ahead of the $10.5 billion consensus. CEO Lisa Su revealed that soaring demand for agentic artificial intelligence and inferencing has dramatically accelerated server compute requirements. This prompted AMD to double its server CPU TAM forecast to more than $120 billion by 2030, projecting an annual growth rate of over 35% vs its prior 18% estimate. Wall Street responded with enthusiasm and BofA Securities noted that AMD is well-positioned to capture roughly 50% of this expanded market, leaving rivals Intel and Arm to split the remainder. Maintaining a 55% gross margin while generating $2.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow (+ 253% YoY) shows that AMD has the financial muscle to heavily fund continuous R&D and secure leading-edge foundry capacity.

Adyen

During Q1, Adyen delivered a net revenue of 621 million euros, a rise of 16% year-over-year (+20 % YoY at constant currency basis), slightly exceeding consensus expectations of 19.5%. All segments depicted a double-digit constant-currency net revenue growth.

Processed volume reached €382 billion (up 21% year-over-year), driven by a growth of 26% in Unified Commerce and 38% in Platforms.

Management showed confidence by affirming that operational trends have remained highly stable heading into the second quarter, contrasting sharply with the deteriorating performance reported by its payment peers like PayPal.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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The Hyperscaler Flywheel: Cloud, Chips, and Capital

• Alphabet smashed Wall Street expectations in Q1, reporting a 22% revenue surge to $110 billion and an EPS of $5.11, nearly doubling the prior year’s $2.81. The standout performer was Google Cloud, which skyrocketed 63% to $20 billion as enterprise AI demand intensified. With a massive cloud backlog of over $460 billion and its Gemini AI models processing 16 billion tokens per minute, the company is effectively leveraging its vertically integrated AI flywheel. Highlighting its strong financial health, Alphabet also raised its quarterly dividend and maintained robust operating margins of 36.1%.

• Amazon’s revenue grew 17% to $182 billion and net income jumped to $30 billion, driven significantly by a $17 billion gain from its Anthropic investment. AWS was the star of the show, accelerating to 28% growth (its fastest in 15 quarters) while the company’s custom silicon business surpassed a $20 billion annual run rate. Despite negative free cash flow due to a massive $43 billion net CapEx push into AI, Amazon’s strategic partnerships with OpenAI and Meta for its Trainium and Graviton chips underscore its growing dominance in the AI infrastructure layer.

• Microsoft delivered a robust performance in the March quarter, with revenue reaching $83 billion (up 18%) and earnings per share of $4.27, both comfortably exceeding analyst expectations. This growth was primarily fueled by cloud and AI momentum, as evidenced by a 123% year-over-year surge in AI-related revenue, which hit a $37 billion annual run rate. The Microsoft Cloud segment generated $55 billion, while Azure specifically grew 40%, outperforming forecasts. In addition, commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) skyrocketed 99% to $627 billion, signaling long-term revenue visibility through massive multi-year enterprise contracts. Despite heavy investments, Microsoft demonstrated strong operational leverage, expanding its operating margins to 46.3% and reinforcing its dominant competitive stance in the enterprise AI market.

• Meta delivered a strong Q1 with revenue surging 33% to $56 billion, driven by robust advertising fundamentals as ad impressions grew 19% alongside a 12% increase in average ad pricing. Despite 35% cost increases, the company maintained a 41% operating margin and generated over $32 billion in operating cash flow. While Meta’s revenue growth outpaced its hyperscaler peers, investors remain cautious due to a significant hike in full-year capital expenditure guidance, now reaching up to $145 billion, reflecting the high costs of data centers and AI infrastructure. This $10 billion CapEx upward revision triggered an 8%+ stock sell-off, wiping out roughly $175 billion as investors punish the company for the unclear AI ROI. Additionally, Meta is proceeding with an aggressive workforce reductions (10% cut) to offset AI investments.

Other Key Updates

• PayPal Reorganizes: CEO Enrique Lores (who took over very recently) is simplifying the giant into three units: Checkout, Consumer/Venmo, and Payment Services/Crypto. A key highlight of this move is the elevation of Venmo into its own standalone segment, a decision accompanied by the departure of executives Diego Scotti and Michelle Gill. By making Venmo a standalone segment, PayPal is making it easier for the street to value the asset independently or potentially prepare it for a future sale.

• Booking’s Middle East Headwinds: Q1 was mixed as regional disruptions weighed on guidance. While gross bookings expanded 15% to $54B, management lowered full-year guidance to high-single to low-double-digit growth due to increased cancellations and regional headwinds that peaked in March. Despite these pressures, the company maintained strong market share gains and returned $3.6B to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

• Adobe is collaborating with Alluvium and has completed the acquisition of Semrush Holdings. The partnership with Alluvium integrates Adobe Experience Platform’s demand-generation tools with supply orchestration to help healthcare providers align clinical capacity with patient demand. Simultaneously, the Semrush acquisition bolsters Adobe’s ability to drive brand discoverability and conversion, specifically targeting the shift toward AI-driven interfaces and autonomous agents as the primary way customers now engage with brands.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Project Prometheus & The Anthropic Funding

Bezos’s new venture, Project Prometheus, is reportedly nearing a $10 billion funding round at a $38 billion valuation. With co-CEO and Google veteran Vik Bajaj, the company is building AI models targeting physical AI (to interact with the real world).

Meanwhile, the capital flowing into Anthropic is impressive. Google confirmed it is planning to invest up to $40 billion in the firm ($10 billion upfront, $30 billion based on milestones). While Anthropic already relies on Google Cloud for chips and infrastructure this partnership brings another 5 gigawatts of capacity over the next five years.

Amazon few days earlier, also increased its investment in Anthropic by contributing another $25 billion ($5 billion initial, $20 billion milestone-based) to a total of $33 billion. In return, Anthropic committed to spending over $100 billion on AWS over the next decade, securing up to 5 gigawatts of computing capacity through Amazon’s Trainium AI chips. Anthropic is hungry for compute power as its efforts already bear fruit with annualized revenues tripled quarter-over-quarter in April to top $30 billion, officially outpacing OpenAI.

On another note, the NSA is already reportedly leveraging Mythos’s defensive power to secure critical infrastructure.

Alphabet partners with Marvell & The 8th-Gen TPU

Google is in talks to co-develop custom AI inference processors with Marvell Technology. This suggests that in the AI era, amid supply chain constraints and rapid innovation, hyperscalers are diversifying their chip ecosystems, reinforcing the idea that there will be more than one winner.

Further cementing its infrastructure dominance, Google just introduced its 8th-generation custom Tensor Processor Units.

• TPU 8t (Training): Built to reduce frontier model development cycles from months to weeks. It delivers nearly 3x the compute performance per pod over the previous generation. A single superpod now scales to 9,600 chips and 2 petabytes of shared memory, delivering an incredible 121 ExaFlops of compute.

• TPU 8i (Inference): Designed for intricate, collaborative workflows where specialized agents “swarm” together. It pairs 288 GB of high-bandwidth memory with 384 MB of on-chip SRAM (3x more than the previous generation) to eliminate idle processors, all powered by Google’s custom Axion Arm-based CPUs.

When CEO Sundar Pichai posted the announcement on X, even Elon Musk stated: “TPUs are underrated”. This further justifies the importance of this development and the place that TPUs have in this AI shift to agentic AI.

The Hardware & Silicon Surge

• AMD: Jefferies noted that Intel’s recent earnings serve as validation of the massive AI tailwinds boosting server CPU demand into 2027. Following this, D.A. Davidson upgraded AMD to “Buy,” viewing Intel’s results as a precursor for a huge step-up in AMD’s CPU franchise. We believe as long as there is a shortage of AI chips, AMD has incredible pricing power. In fact, AMD is rapidly approaching the $389 target price we modeled back in November 2025 when it was trading at just $206.

• AWS & Meta: In a massive win for Amazon, Meta has committed to tens of millions of Graviton CPU cores for its Agentic AI workloads. Complex multi-step orchestration, real-time reasoning, and code generation at scale are highly CPU-intensive. Amazon’s purpose-built Graviton5 instances deliver up to 33% lower latency between cores, cementing the fact that Agentic AI is becoming as much of a CPU story as a GPU story.

Software, Commerce & The Experience Economy

• Adyen: Shifting from its traditional organic growth mindset, Adyen announced its first-ever acquisition: buying loyalty and incentives platform Talon.One for €750 million in cash. Talon.One expects to generate €60 million in ARR this year (a 12.5x multiple - sounds a bit expensive right?). By connecting Adyen’s dynamic payment identification with Talon.One’s SKU-level data, merchants can apply real-time, dynamic pricing and promotions directly in the cart, perfectly positioning Adyen for the emerging Agentic Commerce space.

• Adobe is co-developing an industry-specialized AI agentic operating model with Omnicom to automate marketing workflows. Meanwhile, Adobe has also announced a massive new $25 billion share buyback program through 2030, a signal from the board that they believe the market is undervaluing their pivot to AI.

• Fortinet received the 2026 Google Cloud Partner of the Year Award. Fortinet’s FortiCNAPP platform is gaining traction among enterprises by combining deep network visibility with cloud protection in a unified solution, reflecting a broader shift toward integrated cloud security platforms.

Earnings Watch: EVO & POOL

• Evolution Ab: Q1 ‘26 results are mixed. Sales declined 1.5% overall but grew 6.8% in constant currency. Asia is still struggling but managed a 2.2% QoQ growth, while Europe dropped 5.9% QoQ. On the bright side, LATAM grew 29.3% YoY (aided by a competitor exiting Argentina) and North America grew 10.1% YoY, while it launched a second Michigan studio and there were positive regulatory developments in Maine. Overall, operations are stable, but cutting the dividend and a somewhat shady approach to their new 10% share repurchase authorization raised some governance concerns. After all, what was the purpose of delaying the announcement of their capital allocation policy??

• Pool Corp: After a brutal three-year cycle of post-pandemic normalization, we see clear signs of a return to growth. Q1 ‘26 delivered a 6% bump in net sales and a 7% YoY growth in operating income, the first meaningful acceleration after nearly 12 quarters of flatness. The industry seems to have bottomed out at 58K new pools built in 2025 (similar to 2011 levels), and chemical deflation has officially stopped acting as a headwind.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Big Tech’s Space Race & AI Alliances

• Amazon’s Satellite Leap: Amazon is making a massive leap into satellite connectivity by acquiring Globalstar for $90.00 per share ($11.57billion). The FCC-approved deal allows Amazon to provide direct-to-device (D2D) services via its Leo satellite network starting in 2028, and includes an established partnership to provide satellite connectivity for Apple’s iPhone and Apple Watch features. This effectively leapfrogs Amazon into the D2D market that SpaceX’s Starlink has been targeting. While legal investigations into the deal’s valuation are ongoing, the operational synergy with Apple provides a massive, immediate subscriber base.

• Anthropic’s Valuation: Separately, Amazon-backed Anthropic is seeing a valuation surge, with offers as high as $800 billion as it explores a potential IPO.

• Alphabet’s Windfalls & Expansion: Alphabet is poised for a potential $122 billion windfall from its 6.11% stake in SpaceX, should the latter reach a $2 trillion valuation in an IPO. This SpaceX windfall represents a staggering return on early investment that significantly bolsters Alphabet’s financials. On the operational front, Google Cloud is deepening its agentic AI ecosystem through strategic partnerships with Thoma Bravo and Cadence, optimizing Gemini models for enterprise-scale AI transformations.

• New Google Integrations: Further expanding its AI applications, Google is negotiating an agreement with the Department of Defense that would allow the Pentagon to deploy its Gemini AI models in classified settings. In the consumer luxury space, Kering aims to launch smart glasses under the Gucci brand in partnership with Google next year, positioning it as the first major luxury brand to enter the AI-powered eyewear sector.

• Regulatory Headwinds: Despite these wins, Alphabet continues to face regulatory headwinds, including a new antitrust lawsuit from Aptoide regarding monopolizing Android app distribution and billing systems.

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Software & Specialized Services

• Adobe: Adobe launched its Firefly AI Assistant, which automates complex multi-step workflows across Creative Cloud apps like Photoshop and Premiere. In a notable move toward an open ecosystem, Adobe is also integrating third-party models, including Anthropic’s Claude, directly into its platform.

• Autodesk: Autodesk expanded its long-term partnership with Globant, which was named an Autodesk Tandem Digital Twin Solution Provider. This collaboration aims to accelerate digital twin implementation in global logistics and smart manufacturing.

Other Key Updates

• ASML: Analysts have significantly increased their price target to $1,846, citing “substantial AI demand”. Supporting this outlook, ASML posted strong first-quarter 2026 earnings of €7.15 per share, up 19.2% year over year. Total net sales were €8.77 billion, increasing 13.2% from the year-ago quarter. As a result, ASML raised and narrowed its full-year outlook, now expecting 2026 total net sales between €36 billion and €40 billion. The company is also planning to double its EUV production capacity by 2027 to meet expected sales growth driven by global memory shortages and advanced EUV adoption. Meanwhile, a surge in sales from South Korea, which hit 45% of the Q1 total, is helping offset headwinds from evolving export controls in China.

• Advanced Micro Devices: The company is expanding its footprint in the autonomous driving sector through a $60 million joint investment in Wayve. Additionally, Supermicro introduced three new edge AI systems powered by AMD’s EPYC 4005 series processors, targeting high-performance workloads in space-constrained environments such as retail stores, manufacturing sites, healthcare environments, where data is processed locally.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

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1. Breaking the SEA Border: Why Taiwan?

For the first time in its history, Grab is stepping outside Southeast Asia into its 9th market. CEO Anthony Tan described this as a natural next step, and the data supports this move as Taiwan it’s a logistics dream given its population density.

Taiwan’s urban density is 3.6x higher than Grab’s Southeast Asian average. High density means shorter delivery routes (so better efficiency) and higher “drops-per-hour,” meaning that margins are generally higher.

Additionally over 4 in 10 households are single-person residences. These households don’t usually cook, making them the highest-frequency users of delivery apps. What a gift for Grab!!

But they are not just solo. They have money to spend, as Taiwan has the second highest household income in Grab’s footprint, trailing only Singapore.

Source: Grab M&A presentation

As Grab’s CEO, Anthony Tan, puts it:

“Taiwan’s population of approximately 23 million also has a high demand for mobile-first services, similar to the Southeast Asian consumers who Grab serves every day.”

2. The Valuation: Did Grab Get a “Steal”?

Grab is paying $600 million for a business that generated $1.8 billion in GMV in 2025. This implies a 0.33x EV/GMV multiple, that stands at a 51% discount to its own trading multiple of approximately 0.68x GMV (including mobility GMV).

To add on this, Uber was willing to pay $950 million for the same asset just 22 months ago before regulators blocked it. However you slice it, Grab has done a good deal.

3. Uber - The Elephant in the Room

The main ‘concern’ relates to the relationship with Uber which remains a major strategic partner and a shareholder in Grab (a remnant of the 2018 SEA exit). Grab will now go head-to-head with Uber Eats in Taiwan creating a potential conflict. When asked about this, Anthony Tan gave the response needed from someone focused on shareholder value:

“Our primary fiduciary duty is to all our shareholders, and driving long-term value creation for our ecosystem in all the countries that we serve.”

Grab is here to win for their investors. Addressing concerns over regulatory hurdles, management clarified that they are entering Taiwan as a new competitor rather than a market consolidator like Uber. This distinction provides a significantly smoother path with the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission.

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4. Financial Impact

Grab is buying a business that is already profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis (before group cost allocations). As such they expect the following:

• The deal to be accretive to Grab’s 2026 Revenue guidance of $4.04B - $4.10B.

• The transaction to contribute at least $60 million in incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2028. That stands at 3.3% of current GMV; above Grab’s average of 2% in FY25 and slightly below its long-term target of 4%. Effectively, it’s buying a profitable asset with room for growth.

5. Final Thoughts

This deal is a masterclass in capital allocation. For the past year, the market has been obsessed with rumors of a Grab-GoTo merger, a deal that many expected to be significantly more expensive (at ~$7b) and complex.

Instead of chasing this multi-billion dollar merger in a lower-income market like Indonesia, Grab pivoted to a cleaner, higher quality asset by grabbing the #1 player in a high-density market at just 0.33x EV/GMV multiple.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Anthropic’s Security Push and Amazon’s Supplier Standoff

Amazon-backed Anthropic launched Project Glasswing, a major cybersecurity initiative, after its Claude Mythos Preview model was found to exceed skilled humans at detecting software vulnerabilities. The coalition is impressive, with Apple, Microsoft, Google, AWS, and others joining to use the model for defensive security work. The ability for an AI model to autonomously find critical vulnerabilities at scale has profound implications.

Away from the AI headlines, Amazon is refusing wholesale supplier requests to raise inventory prices. While this protects short-term margins, suppliers are forced to absorb higher tariff and oil-related costs. This dynamic is a double-edged sword that could squeeze selection if suppliers start redirecting inventory elsewhere.

Google: Gemini Rising & Waymo Expanding

Alphabet had a busy week across AI, autonomous vehicles, and cloud.

Alphabet signed a long-term agreement with Broadcom for custom Tensor Processing Units and AI rack components through 2031, a meaningful step toward hardware self-sufficiency. Waymo also launched fully driverless ride-hailing in Nashville with Lyft as its fleet management partner.

On the software front, Google updated its Gemini chatbot to surface a one-touch ‘Help is available’ interface for crisis support when conversations signal potential mental health distress. Additionally, Google Cloud shifted toward outcome-based, ROI-driven deployment models through a deepened enterprise AI partnership with Onix.

Massive Semiconductor Outlook Upgrade

In a new note to clients, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya issued a massive upgrade to the firm’s global semiconductor outlook. He hiked its 2026 revenue target to $1.3 trillion, a $300 billion leap from the estimate the bank provided just four months ago. The bank expects the total semiconductor market to hit the $2 trillion milestone by 2030. This implies a 20% compound annual growth rate through the end of the decade. This is a very important development for our semi holdings like ASML and AMD.

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PayPal & Meta Integration

PayPal announced a partnership with Meta. The goal: one-tap shopping on Facebook. Users will be able to purchase products without leaving their feed, with Instagram integration coming soon. Users scroll through Facebook, see a product, and buy it with one tap. Given that both platforms have billions of users, the potential is massive. It is a good move, but if this isn’t shown in the underlying numbers, the price won’t move much.

Other Key Updates

• Evolution: Pareto Securities upgraded Evolution to Buy from Hold, raising its price target 17% to 700 SEK. This signals growing conviction in the live casino operator’s near-term earnings trajectory.

• Grab: Grab expects its new AI-powered “group ride” feature to tackle rising fuel costs and drive growth. The feature utilizes automated calculations to split fares more accurately, offering passenger savings of up to 40% per trip.

• Crocs: Shares are rising as traders rotate into unusually cheap, high-quality names. At just 7x forward earnings and 1.19x trailing revenue, the market is pricing in almost no growth.

• The stock market experienced a robust recovery today following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S.. Investors piled back into tech names, lifting Nasdaq 2.8% as geopolitical tensions eased and fear-driven trades reversed.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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The Efficiency Drive: Layoffs & “AI-Driven” Shifts

Big tech continues to trim headcount, signaling a structural shift towards leaner operations, often quietly powered by AI.

• Amazon is reportedly planning a second phase of corporate layoffs, potentially affecting 30,000 employees. While CEO Andy Jassy frames this as a cultural shift for agility, Deepwater Asset Management's managing partner Gene Munster suggest AI is the quiet driver behind smaller teams.

• Autodesk is cutting 7% of its workforce (~1,000 jobs) as part of a restructuring plan, incurring up to $160M in charges.

We are seeing a ‘saving on Opex to spend on Capex’ trend. Companies are cutting operational costs to fund the massive infrastructure required for AI. For the broader economy, however, this signals potential headwinds as unemployment risks rise, a concern echoed by Anthropic’s CEO, who warned unemployment could reach 10% due to AI’s impact.

PayPal’s Future: Agents & Taxes

PayPal is aggressively expanding its ecosystem beyond simple payments.

• Agentic Commerce: PayPal agreed to acquire Cymbio, a platform to help merchants become discoverable on AI platforms. This supports their “Store Sync” agentic commerce service and the transaction is expected to close in H1 2026. That’s another move that positions PayPal for a future where AI agents do the shopping.

• Tax Season Utility: A new partnership with April allows PayPal Debit cardholders to file taxes for free (saving ~$160). This adds stickiness to the ecosystem.

Google: Gemini Rising

Alphabet is seeing tangible momentum with its AI models.

• Gemini’s share of generative AI traffic has surged from 5.3% a year ago to 22.0% today, firmly establishing itself as the clear runner-up to ChatGPT (whose share dropped from 86.6% to 64.6%).

Source: Similarweb

• Developer Demand: API requests for Gemini exploded from 35 billion in March to 85 billion in August, a bullish signal for Google Cloud revenue ahead of earnings.

• Waymo: The autonomous unit launched fully driverless ride-hailing in Miami, with 10,000 residents already signed up.

Other Key Updates

• Intel shares sank 17% after a disappointing outlook and supply disruptions. While they are optimistic about their external foundry efforts with its 14A process, meaningful volume production and thus revenue isn’t expected until late 2028.

• Fortinet: Up 5% after an upgrade to ‘Buy’ by TD Cowen ($100 target), citing steady business demand heading into fiscal 2026.

• Allegion: Schlage was named the “Most Trusted Door Lock” brand for the 7th consecutive year, with a high Net Trust Quotient of 117.0. A boring but beautiful reminder of their brand moat.

• Macro: Markets rebounded after Trump announced a framework deal regarding Greenland, suspending the tariffs that were set for Feb 1.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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Alphabet’s Big Week: The Apple Deal & Personal Intelligence

Alphabet is solidifying its dominance with two major developments that validate its technology and leverage its ecosystem

• The Apple Deal: Apple and Google have entered a multi-year collaboration. The next generation of Apple Foundation Models (powering features like Siri) will run on Google’s Gemini models, with Apple reportedly paying $1 billion annually. This is a huge win for Google and the ultimate validation of who has the best AI stack. Google is now effectively paying ~$20B for distribution (Search) while Apple pays ~$1B for the Gemini models. It’s a symbiotic lock-in. Apple buys time to perfect its tech without sacrificing user experience, while Google secures its position as the infrastructure backbone for the world’s premium device ecosystem.

• Personal Intelligence: Google launched Personal Intelligence for Gemini in beta. This feature securely connects the AI to your apps—Gmail, Photos, YouTube—to provide answers based on your specific context. This leverages Google’s true unfair advantage: Distribution + Data. By using your data from Gmail, YouTube, and Search, they can provide a personalized experience that standalone chatbots simply cannot match.

Meta’s Pivot: A Wild Ride Ahead

Meta is undergoing a massive capital reallocation, shifting focus from the Metaverse to pure Compute.

• Meta Compute: Zuckerberg announced Meta Compute, a top-level initiative to build tens of gigawatts of infrastructure this decade. This is a massive CAPEX initiative—on top of what Meta is already spending—that will take years to play out. It is a huge bet that the demand for personal superintelligence will justify an infrastructure bill of this magnitude. Shareholders should expect a wild ride ahead as free cash flow comes under pressure to fund this vision.

• Reality Labs: According to Bloomberg Meta plans to cut 10% of jobs in Reality Labs. This segment has annualized operating losses of around $18B and has torched over $50B since 2021. We doubt Meta will ever see a sufficient return on investment for Reality Labs. Seeing the company shift resources to AI infrastructure while cutting here serves as confirmation that the original bet is not paying off. As Zuckerberg commits to expanding compute, we expect further cuts to this division.

The AI Supercycle: TSMC Confirmation

If anyone doubted the longevity of the AI trade, TSMC just silenced them. TSMC beat Q4 expectations ($33.7B revenue) and guided for a ~40% revenue growth in Q1 2026.

We are entering 2026 with no signs of investments in AI infrastructure slowing down. It is hard to support the narrative that the AI Bubble will burst anytime soon when the actual builders are guiding for ~40% growth.

Regulation & Trade: The China Chip Dance

The geopolitical landscape for Nvidia and AMD remains complex. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated it will allow limited exports of chips like the H200 and MI325X to China, provided U.S. demand is met first. However, reports indicate Beijing may instruct customs to block these imports anyway to support domestic alternatives and encourage local innovation.

Other Key Updates

• AWS Sovereign Cloud: Amazon launched its European Sovereign Cloud with a $9.1B investment in Germany. This is a defensive moat against EU regulation, ensuring European data stays in Europe.

• Wing Expansion: Alphabet’s Wing is expanding drone delivery to 150 more Walmart stores, with a plan to scale to 270 locations by 2027.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

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The AI Energy Rush: Going Nuclear

Meta Platforms is making the “physical reality” of AI undeniable by securing massive power capacity.

• The Vistra Deal: Meta signed 20-year agreements with Vistra for over 2,600 MW of nuclear energy.

• The Oklo Bet: A partnership with Oklo to develop a 1.2 GW nuclear campus in Ohio, targeting 2030 to complete the first phase.

• Meta is funding TerraPower to develop two new Natrium® units capable of 690 MW of firm power, with delivery as early as 2032. The deal includes rights for up to six additional units (2.1 GW), targeting 2035. Across 8 potential units, this represents 2.8 GW of baseload generation plus 1.2 GW of built-in storage.

Meta isn’t just buying power; they are actively building the grid of the future. By diversifying across three timelines, Vistra (Now/Existing), Oklo (2030/SMR), and TerraPower (2032/Advanced Sodium), they are hedging their bets against regulatory delays and technology risks. Securing ~6.6 GW of carbon-free, 24/7 power is a massive strategic moat that competitors will struggle to replicate without similar capital commitments.

AMD at CES: The “Yottascale” Era

AMD is aggressively expanding its portfolio to challenge Nvidia, unveiling a suite of products at CES 2026 under the banner of “AI for Everyone.”

• CEO Lisa Su declared we are entering the “Yottascale” era, where AI model deployment will require a 100x increase in global computing capacity.

• AMD projects the number of AI users to explode from 1 billion to 5 billion in just five years. This isn’t just about servers; it’s about putting AI in every hand.

• New Hardware & Benefits:

  • Ryzen AI 400 Series: Targeting the consumer PC market, these chips deliver tangible productivity gains: 1.3x faster multitasking and 1.7x faster content creation compared to peers.

  • Helios AI Server Rack: Featuring 72 MI455X GPUs, launching 2H 2026 to compete with Nvidia’s rack-scale solutions.

  • Ryzen AI Halo: A new platform for developers to build local AI apps, further democratizing access.

AMD is positioning itself as the engine for mass adoption as AMD’s “AI for Everyone” strategy targets the volume market.

PayPal’s Two-Pronged Attack

PayPal announced two major developments that target both user acquisition and high-margin monetization.

1. The Paychex Partnership

• PayPal is collaborating with Paychex to add a PayPal direct deposit option to the Paychex Flex Perks platform. This allows employees of Paychex clients to receive their wages directly into their PayPal balance. Most importantly, this offers access to pay up to two days early.

The promise of early wages is a strong hook for adoption. By capturing the paycheck at the source, PayPal gets fresh capital into its ecosystem regularly. New users come for the early access, but once the money is in the wallet, PayPal can monetize it through spending, crypto, or savings products.

2. Transaction Graph Insights (The Ad Play)

• PayPal launched a new ad platform that leverages its unique data advantage: it sees the actual purchase. Unlike Google (search intent) or Meta (social interest), PayPal knows exactly what you bought. Early tests with Ulta Beauty showed a 20% lift in transaction spend.

This is potentially huge. Advertising is a high-margin business that could significantly move the needle on profitability. If PayPal can scale this without degrading the user experience, it unlocks a new valuation multiple for the stock.

Greggs: A “Transition Year” Testing Patience

Greggs shares fell ~5% after a trading update that, while solid on the surface, reset expectations for 2026.

• The Good (Revenue Acceleration): What we liked was the acceleration in revenue. Q4 underlying sales grew 2.9%, a clear improvement from the 1.5% growth seen in the previous quarter.

• The Bad (Store Openings & Margins): Previously, the target was 150 net new stores per annum. The new guidance of 120 net new shops for 2026 implies a slowdown, although this comes with a more cautious capex approach.

• The Margins: While operational costs were controlled (delivering £13m in efficiencies) and cost inflation is expected to lower in 2026, the new Derby facility is creating headwinds. The fixed costs associated with bringing this capacity online are weighing on margins, leading to “weak” guidance for operating profit to remain flat year-over-year.

Investors (including us) were expecting operating leverage to kick in, expanding margins for 2026. Instead, we are getting flat profit guidance due to the costs of bringing new supply chain capacity online.

• Valuation View: While the “peak Greggs” narrative is circulating, we disagree. The Derby facility is a necessary fixed-cost investment to support future growth (short-term pain, long-term gain). Even adjusting for lower 2026 expectations, our valuation model suggests the target price is still above current levels. However, with flat profits on the horizon, the stock likely faces a “show me” period, it may be dead money until execution improves in 2027.

Other Key Updates

• Anthropic: Reports of a $10B raise at a $350B valuation confirm the extreme capital intensity of the AI race.

• Defense: Lockheed Martin surged on calls for a 50% US military budget increase.

• Samsung/Google: Doubling its AI-enabled devices to 800 million this year, effectively making Google’s Gemini the default AI for a massive chunk of the global population.

• Gmail AI: New summarization and “Help Me Write” features are rolling out, bringing AI utility directly into the daily workflow of millions.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days. Before we begin, please note the following:

Amazon’s Drone Retreat & Cloud Stumbles

Amazon is pulling back on its drone ambitions in Italy while facing heat over cloud reliability.

The Drone Drop: Amazon has halted its commercial drone delivery program in Italy, citing a regulatory framework that doesn’t support its long-term goals.

AWS Outage: On Christmas Eve, AWS suffered a significant disruption, reportedly its third large-scale crash of the year, taking down tens of thousands of websites and sparking user complaints.

The drone news is a reminder that regulation remains a massive “hidden tax” on innovation, technology is ready, but the rules aren’t. Meanwhile, frequent AWS outages are a genuine risk; reliability is the cloud’s core promise, and repeated failures could open the door for Microsoft Azure or Google Cloud to steal frustrated enterprise customers.

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Samsung’s Strategic Shift

Samsung is taking more control over its destiny with the upcoming Galaxy S26.

In-House GPU: The company will debut its first in-house mobile GPU design in the Exynos 2600 chip, slated for early 2026.

While Samsung designed the layout, the underlying architecture remains licensed from AMD.

“Remaining licensed” means Samsung is still paying AMD to use the fundamental blueprints (RDNA architecture) but is customizing how those blueprints are built (the layout) to optimize for power and heat. This is a “middle ground” step towards full independence. For us, it signals that owning the silicon stack is now table stakes for AI-enabled hardware, where efficiency is everything.

The AI Energy War: Google’s $4.75B Power Play

Alphabet is making a massive move to secure the one thing AI needs most: energy.

Google agreed to acquire Intersect for $4.75 billion. The deal includes “multiple gigawatts” of energy and data center projects.

This allows Google to build power generation in “lockstep” with new data centers, rather than waiting for slow utility providers.

This is a brilliant move. Power cooling and availability are now the primary bottlenecks for AI scaling. By vertically integrating energy infrastructure, Google gains a structural speed and cost advantage over rivals who are still at the mercy of the public grid.

Other Key Updates

• Alibaba & AMD: Reports suggest Alibaba is weighing a purchase of 40,000–50,000 of AMD’s MI308 AI accelerators. If confirmed, this validates AMD as a serious alternative to Nvidia in the restrictive Chinese market.

• Waymo’s Resilience: Waymo is updating its fleet after a massive San Francisco power outage tested its systems. While service was paused, the vehicles successfully navigated 7,000 “dark signals”.

• OpenAI Ads: OpenAI is officially exploring ads in ChatGPT. This was inevitable. The real test isn’t if they do it, but how, if they clutter the experience, users might flee. If they nail it, Google Search has a new, serious rival for ad dollars. Of course, this was the main risk from the beginning.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

PayPal’s Banking Ambition

PayPal is making a strategic pivot by applying to establish “PayPal Bank”, an industrial bank in Utah.

The bank would offer interest-bearing savings accounts and small business loans while pursuing direct membership with U.S. card networks.

This is a shift from “disruptor” back to the “banking system,” but it makes strategic sense. By holding deposits directly and controlling the lending capacity without third-party bank spreads, PayPal can protect margins and reduce dependency. It also allows for faster processing, lower fees (fewer intermediaries), and better credit risk assessment using its vast transaction data. This move is defensive (protecting margins) but also offensive (expanding its offering and potentially revenue per user).

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Fortinet’s Strategic Moves

Fortinet announced two key developments reinforcing its position in the AI era.

• Secure AI Data Center: A new solution built with Arista Networks to deliver a scalable, zero-trust architecture for AI data centers. This combines Fortinet’s security with Arista’s high-performance networking, aiming to speed up AI deployment.

• Nvidia Integration: Fortinet launched a firewall integration with Nvidia’s BlueField DPUs. This allows core security functions to run on the DPU instead of the host CPU, securing AI environments without slowing down critical workloads.

These partnerships are strategic moves to solve the “AI Security Paradox”, securing massive data flows without killing performance. These are the benefits:

• AI training requires ultra-low latency. By integrating with Arista, Fortinet ensures security doesn’t become the choke point in high-speed clusters.

• Offloading security tasks to Nvidia’s DPU frees up expensive CPUs and GPUs to focus purely on AI workloads, directly improving the customer’s ROI on hardware.

• Instead of being displaced by cloud-native trends, Fortinet is successfully embedding itself into the “AI Infrastructure Stack,” ensuring long-term relevance.

The AI Capital Race: Waymo & OpenAI

The race for capital in the AI and autonomous sectors is accelerating.

• Waymo Fundraising: Alphabet’s Waymo is in talks to raise over $15 billion at a valuation of roughly $100 billion. This valuation is more than double the company’s $45 billion valuation in October 2024, a surge driven by significant milestones, including surpassing 127 million autonomous miles, primarily in Phoenix and San Francisco. This growth is just the beginning, as Waymo has already expanded operations into additional states and is poised for international expansion.

• Amazon & OpenAI: Amazon is discussing a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, potentially valuing the startup at over $500 billion. Additionally, OpenAI intends to use Amazon’s Trainium AI chips.

The funding needs for AI are massive. For Amazon, this is a strategic win: getting OpenAI to use Trainium validates its custom silicon and shows ASICs can win share from GPUs. Meanwhile, bubble fears persist, with Senator Bernie Sanders calling for a halt to new AI data centers, warning the boom is driven by billionaires rather than public interest.

Meta’s Regulatory & Fraud Woes

Meta Platforms faces scrutiny over its handling of fraudulent ads.

A Reuters report alleges Meta was aware of fraudulent practices by Chinese advertisers but failed to take meaningful action, prioritizing the billions in ad revenue. In 2024, ~19% of its $18 billion in annual revenue from China reportedly came from ads linked to scams, gambling, and pornography. This is a governance failure that could lead to fines and reputational damage. While Meta created an anti-fraud team that reduced problematic ads by half, the allegation that they ignored the issue to protect revenue is concerning.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

Adobe: Proving the AI Skeptics Wrong

Adobe reported another strong quarter, beating both revenue and earnings estimates.

• The Numbers: Revenue reached $6.19 billion (+10% YoY) with non-GAAP EPS up 14%. Operating margin expanded to 36.5%. RPO grew 13%, signaling that demand is not drying up despite the “AI disruption” narrative.

• FY26 Guidance: The company guided for 9.4% revenue growth, 10.2% ARR growth and 11.7% EPS growth.

The sentiment remains negative due to perceived existential risks from AI, but the data suggests otherwise as the company continues to deliver double digit growth. Adobe is positioning itself not as a competitor to models, but as the platform layer where AI assets (whether from Firefly or OpenAI) are created, edited and finalized.

In terms of valuation, it trades at a 5.5% FCF yield (net of SBC). If FCF continues to grow in the 10% range, we believe this investment can compound at a 15% IRR without any multiple expansion.

Ashtead: Signs of Acceleration

Ashtead reported Q2’26 results showing continued momentum.

• Performance: Revenue grew 1%, but excluding the impact of last year’s hurricane season, growth was 3%—marking the third consecutive quarter of sequential improvement.

• Outlook: Management reaffirmed full-year guidance for rental revenue growth (0-4%) and Free Cash Flow ($2.2B–$2.5B).

The non-residential construction environment is stabilizing (new starts are now at equilibrium with completions), with mega-project activity remaining strong. We valued Ashtead at £55.50 per share in September; at current levels (~£47.85), it implies ~16% upside.

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Google: Gemini Gaining Ground

• Market Share Shift: According to Sensor Tower data, Gemini mobile app MAUs surged 30% (to 346M) between August and November, outpacing ChatGPT’s 5% growth. Gemini taking share from ChatGPT while AI usage proving to be incremental to commercial search queries is a huge win for Google.

• Regulatory Headwind: The European Commission has opened a formal probe into whether Google gives itself preferential access to web/YouTube content for AI training. The Commission will assess whether Google uses the content on unfair terms to publishers and creators. Reportedly, the fine can be as high as 10% Google’s total revenue.

• DoD Contract: Gemini will power GenAI.mil, a new AI platform for the U.S. Department of Defense. This is a validation of the model’s security and capability for enterprise/government use.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• China Exports: Trump said on Truth Social the U.S. may allow Nvidia to ship H200 chips to China, provided Washington receives a 25% cut. While the highly advanced Blackwell/Rubin chips remain banned, this could reopen a significant revenue stream for Nvidia and possibly AMD. However, this also depends whether China will allow those purchases.

• Fed Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% (the third cut of the year), signaling a continued easing cycle, though the outlook for 2026 remains more muted with only one projected cut.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

Meta’s Pivot: Zuckerberg Gives Investors What They Want

According to Bloomberg, Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg has discussed budget cuts as high as 30% for the company’s metaverse division next year. The stock responded positively, rising 3% on the news.

Once again, Mark Zuckerberg demonstrates that he knows exactly what investors want to hear. Reality labs had operating losses of $18 billion over the last twelve months. By reigning in spending on the currently loss-making metaverse project, Meta is signaling a continued focus on efficiency, aligning its capital allocation with market expectations.

Amazon Unveils Trainium3: Another Threat to Nvidia?

Amazon announced the general availability of Trainium3 UltraServers, powered by its new custom AI chip. The new system delivers up to 4.4x more compute performance and 4x greater energy efficiency than its predecessor. Customers like Anthropic are reportedly reducing training costs by up to 50% using Trainium.

Hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are releasing viable alternatives to Nvidia GPUs at a rapid pace. These ASIC solutions provide more cost-efficient alternatives for specific workloads. If compute consumption increasingly shifts toward these custom chips, hyperscalers could begin to claim meaningful market share from Nvidia over time, potentially threatening its hefty margins.

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AMD: Major Partnerships

AMD had a number of positive developments this week:

• Vultr Supercluster: Vultr will launch an AI supercluster powered by 24,000 AMD Instinct MI355X GPUs. While this deal could bring over $500M in revenue, we note that AMD co-led Vultr’s funding round last year, highlighting the increasingly circular nature of AI financing.

• HPE Partnership: HPE will be one of the first to adopt AMD’s “Helios” rack-scale AI architecture.

• No Bubble: At the UBS conference, Su dismissed “AI bubble” fears, stating we are early in a 10-year super cycle. On the ASICs Vs GPUs debate, she estimates ASICs (like Google’s TPUs) can capture 20-25% market share, with GPUs remaining the majority due to flexibility.

Leslie’s Q4’25 results : Anatomy of an Investment Mistake

Leslie’s reported Q4 and FY25 results that beat revenue and EBITDA guidance, but the bigger picture remains challenging.

• Results: Q4 sales fell 2.2% to $389.2M, while Adjusted EBITDA rose slightly to $45.2M. Management announced the closure of 80-90 non-profitable stores (resulting in a $180M impairment) and is targeting a 10% inventory reduction in FY26 alongside cost cuts.

• FY26 Guidance: The company guides for $1.175 billion in sales at the mid-point (implying -5% growth) with a slight uptick in Adjusted EBITDA to $65M.

• Liquidity & Viability: While store closures were necessary, they may not be enough. With annual interest expenses of ~$63M and a cash position falling to $23M (plus ~$150M available in the revolving facility), Leslie’s must increase Free Cash Flow (FCF) to cover interest payments. This appears achievable in FY26 given the EBITDA guidance and targeted $100M inventory reduction, but profitability must improve meaningfully thereafter for the business to be sustainable.

Leslie’s has been one of our investment mistakes. We assumed the company could return to pre-COVID profitability after over-earning during the pandemic. Instead, the opposite occurred, and management’s execution has fallen short of our expectations.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• Anthropic IPO? Reports suggest Anthropic (backed by Amazon and Google) has hired law firm Wilson Sonsini to explore a potential IPO, possibly as early as next year.

• Greggs Upgrade: J.P. Morgan initiated coverage on Greggs with an “Overweight” rating and ~35% upside, citing sector-leading margins, strong unit economics and major catalysts from 2026 as new distribution centres come online. It appears the Street is finally beginning to recognize that Greggs is undervalued.

• Evolution vs Black Cube: In a new court filing, Black Cube presented an affidavit claiming Evolution’s games remain accessible in sanctioned jurisdictions like Iran and Russia, seeking dismissal of Evolution’s lawsuit. The New Jersey court must now decide whether to dismiss the case or allow litigation to proceed.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

Short on time? If you don’t want to read the full report, this infographic gives you the high-level picture of everything that follows.

The AI Chip War Heats Up: Meta Eyes Google TPUs

Reports indicate that Meta is considering spending billions on Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for its data centers starting in 2027, with cloud capacity rental potentially beginning as early as 2026. This would be a major strategic shift, validating Google’s ASIC TPUs as a cost-effective alternative to traditional GPUs.

• Impact on Google: If Google successfully deploys TPUs directly in customer facilities and penetrates other hyperscalers, it could capture significant market share in AI Infrastructure. Coupled with the positive reception of Gemini 3, this fuels the narrative that Google will be a major long-term AI winner.

• Nvidia’s Reaction: Following the report, Nvidia issued a defensive post stating its technology is a “generation ahead” and is the “only platform that runs every AI model.” This rare public defense from the world’s largest company suggests they are actively trying to prevent stock price pullback and acknowledge the competitive threat.

AMD’s Hardware Validated by Major Training Milestone

AMD announced that Zyphra has developed ZAYA1, the first large-scale Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) foundation model trained entirely on AMD’s GPU and networking platform. Using Instinct MI300X GPUs and the ROCm open software stack, the model matched or exceeded the performance of leading models like Llama-3-8B and Gemma3-12B.

This is a critical validation point. It proves that AMD’s hardware is not just theoretical but is executing effectively on production-scale AI workloads, further solidifying its roadmap as a viable alternative to Nvidia.

Autodesk Delivers Strong Beat & Raise

Autodesk delivered excellent Q3’26 results, beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

• Revenue: $1.855 billion, up 18% YoY (12% excluding the new transaction model).

• Billings: $1.853 billion, up 21% YoY (16% excluding the new transaction model).

• Margins: Non-GAAP operating margin expanded +100 bps to hit 38% (management targets 41% by FY29).

• Guidance: The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $7.150-$7.165 billion (from $7.025-$7.075B) and non-GAAP operating margin guidance to approximately 37.5%.

• Valuation: The company continues to execute flawlessly on its strategy; however, we believe this is fully reflected in the current price. Assuming it hits 30% GAAP EBIT margin (derived from ~40% Non-GAAP margin less ~10% for SBC and amortization) by FY29 on a 10% revenue CAGR, the company trades at 22x FY29 forward EV/EBIT.

Straumann Capital Markets Day: Confidence in Growth

At its Capital Markets Day, Straumann presented its strategic vision for 2026-2030.

• Growth Targets: The company aims for a 10% average revenue CAGR and a core EBIT margin expansion of 40-50 basis points per annum.

• Market Share: They plan to increase implant market share by mid-single digits (from 35%) and clear aligner share by low double-digits (from 3%).

The revenue targets align with our deep dive model, but the consistent annual margin expansion target is a positive surprise, signaling strong operating leverage ahead.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• Amazon’s Massive Capex Continues: Amazon announced a $50 billion data center investment to expand AI capabilities for U.S. government customers (AWS Top Secret/GovCloud) and a separate $15 billion for data centers in Indiana. Big Tech capital expenditure shows no signs of deceleration.

• Trump Administration & Nvidia: Reports suggest the Trump administration may permit Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to China. If approved, this would unlock a massive, previously restricted market opportunity for both Nvidia and AMD.

• Evolution Merger Delay: Evolution AB and Galaxy Gaming have extended the timeline for their merger due to pending regulatory approvals, now expecting it to close in mid-2026 (originally expected to close during the second half of 2025).

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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P.S. On December 4-5, our co-founder Adamos Hadjiantoniou will be joining the FatAlpha online conference to pitch a high-conviction stock idea. If you are interested in seeing the pitch live alongside other investors, tickets are available starting at €99. We’ve set up a discount code STOCKN10 for our readers to get 10% off.

Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

The AI Race: Investments Surge, but Bubble Fears Persist

The technology sector continues to be defined by massive AI investments, even as market jitters around a potential bubble intensify.

• Nvidia reported another blockbuster quarter, with Q3 revenue jumping 62% year-over-year to $57.0 billion, beating estimates. The company also issued strong guidance for Q4 revenue of $65 billion. CEO Jensen Huang described demand for the new Blackwell chips as “off the charts” and dismissed bubble concerns, emphasizing Nvidia’s leadership across all phases of AI. However, the stock fell over 3% post-earnings. The market reaction likely reflects concerns over the quality of earnings. Accounts receivable jumped by about $5.6 billion from the previous quarter and $15.7 billion from a year earlier, an 89% increase year-over-year against 62% revenue growth. This disconnect has fueled speculation that revenue may have been pulled forward to meet consensus and quell AI fears. Additionally, risks remain regarding customer concentration, as a large portion of data center revenue still comes from a handful of hyperscale buyers.

• Google unveiled Gemini 3, its “most intelligent” AI model yet, designed to handle complex tasks with less prompting. Early benchmarks suggest it performs ahead of key rivals and signals that Google isn’t trailing in the AI race anymore.

• Amazon plans to invest at least $3 billion in a new data center campus in Mississippi to support its cloud and AI technologies, signaling that hyperscalers have no intention of slowing down their capital expenditures.

• Michael Burry, famous for “The Big Short,” has reportedly placed a $1 billion bet against Nvidia and Palantir, signaling his belief that the sector is inflated and vulnerable to a correction.

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Google Targets Travel & The Autonomous Transport Race

• Google’s Travel Push: Google launched new AI features in Search, including a “Canvas” tool to curate detailed travel plans and an upgraded Flight Deals feature. This caused shares of travel companies like Booking Holdings to fall. While a potential threat, Booking’s strong moat, with over 50% of bookings coming from loyal Genius members and 60% being direct, provides significant resilience against this competitive threat.

• Waymo’s Expansion: Alphabet’s Waymo is pushing its robotaxi expansion, adding New Orleans, Minneapolis, and Tampa to its development pipeline while beginning service in Miami. The company also expects to roll out operations soon in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando.

• Amazon’s Zoox: Amazon’s robotaxi unit, Zoox, has started offering free rides in San Francisco, marking the first time it is competing directly with Waymo in the same market.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• Adobe agreed to acquire Semrush for approx. $1.9 billion ($12.00/share). The move is designed to unlock Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) for marketers, a critical capability as consumers shift to AI-based search. While the price is below the 52-week high, it represents a 77.5% premium over Tuesday’s close and a forward P/E of roughly 30x. It’s not a cheap deal, but it strategically secures Adobe’s place in the evolving digital marketing landscape.

• Meta Platforms won a major legal victory as a federal judge rejected antitrust accusations regarding its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. However, the company faces significant leadership headwinds. Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun is leaving to start his own company after 12 years, and Chief Revenue Officer John Hegeman is stepping down after 17 years with the firm. Losing long-tenured leaders in such critical roles is a blow to Meta’s stability during the AI race.

• AMD scored a major win by powering France’s first exascale supercomputer, showcasing its growing influence in high-performance computing.

• Macro Headwinds: The Nasdaq hit a two-month low after a labor report showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021. This fuels economic uncertainty alongside ongoing AI bubble fears.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

AMD Financial Analyst Day Highlights

At its Financial Analyst Day, AMD outlined a path to a $1 trillion data center TAM by 2030. The company set ambitious long-term targets, including a >35% revenue CAGR and a >35% non-GAAP operating margin in the next three to five years. This growth is predicated on a >60% data center revenue CAGR (and >80% for AI), with goals to capture >50% server CPU revenue share and >40% client revenue share. The strategy is supported by the MI350 Series (fastest ramping product in the company’s history) and the future release of its MI400 Series and the Helios rack-scale solution which are expected to launch in 2026. We will cover AMD’s Investor Day in more detail next week.

Adyen Investor Day Highlights

At its Investor Day, Adyen laid out its new financial targets, projecting revenue to grow at a ~20% CAGR and its EBITDA margin to expand to >55% by 2028 (up from 50% currently). Management’s confidence is based on its massive addressable market, which it estimates at €26 trillion for payments (of which it has ~5% share) and a separate €127 billion annual revenue opportunity in Financial Products. We will cover Adyen’s Investor Day in more detail next week.

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PayPal KBW Conference Highlights

At the KBW Fintech Payments Conference, PayPal outlined its growth strategy, focusing on omnichannel expansion and AI. The “PayPal Everywhere” initiative is gaining traction, with a repositioned debit card offering 5% cashback and a new NFC tap-to-pay solution launched in Germany. A key new initiative, “PayPal World,” aims to create a global wallet network, expanding PayPal’s reach from 500 million to over 2 billion customers.

Management also highlighted Venmo’s 20% revenue growth (tracking toward $1.7B in 2025 and targeting $2 billion by 2027) and stated they will be the first wallet integrated with OpenAI and other AI platforms for agentic commerce. In terms of BNPL, management highlighted that it is expected to generate $40 billion in TPV this year. Additionally, customers who use BNPL drive a 30% increase in checkout TPV and 5x the ARPA compared to checkout-only customers. BNPL penetration is still very low, at only 5-10% of the customer base, representing a significant opportunity.

Allegion Baird Conference Highlights

At the Baird conference, Allegion management provided an update on its market outlook. The non-residential business remains resilient, with stable mid-single-digit growth in its core institutional vertical. Within the commercial vertical, management is seeing early signs of recovery, and the data center segment, though small, continues to grow. The main headwind remains the residential market (20-25% of total revenue), which has been flat to down low single-digits for the past three years.

Management also highlighted the accelerating adoption of electronic locks, a trend supported by strong partnerships with Apple, Google, and Samsung to integrate digital credentials into smartphone wallets. Management reiterated that its “Unique specification writing capability” remains a core competitive advantage that creates durable end-user demand.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• Alphabet’s Waymo has begun offering public robotaxi rides on freeways in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. This demonstrates the Waymo’s ability to safely handle high-speed routes, which enables faster, longer-distance travel.

• Amazon unveiled its new “Amazon Business Assistant” at its Reshape conference. Powered by AWS Bedrock, this AI tool provides conversational support to help organizations discover savings and automate purchasing tasks.

• The AI CAPEX race continues as Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in AI infrastructure, aiming to build custom data centers coming online in 2026.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

The AI Race Accelerates

The high stakes competition to build the next generation of AI continues to intensify, with new massive deals and strategic moves.

• Amazon announced a $38 billion, seven-year partnership with OpenAI. AWS will provide the computing infrastructure, including hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips, to support OpenAI’s AI workloads. Full capacity is expected to be deployed by the end of 2026. This is yet another massive deal for OpenAI as it scales its infrastructure.

• Google is reportedly considering a significant new investment in Anthropic, which could value the AI startup at over $350 billion. This follows Google’s existing commitment of over $3 billion (for a 14% stake) and a separate deal to provide up to one million of its custom TPU chips. Anthropic itself is projecting an aggressive growth path, forecasting up to $70 billion in revenue by 2028.

• Apple will use Google’s 1.2 trillion parameter AI model to power its new version of Siri. This is a significant validation and another major win for Google’s strategy in the AI era.

• Amid all this investment, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang issued a warning that China is poised to surpass the U.S. in AI. He cited cheaper energy and looser regulations as key advantages for Beijing. This highlights a critical bottleneck: if energy constraints are not resolved, the pace of AI innovation could be forced to pause despite the massive capital being deployed.

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Other Portfolio Updates

• Amazon and Nubank announced a partnership to integrate NuPay into Amazon’s Brazil website. This will provide customers with special payment options, including extra credit and more installment choices. This is a key strategic move that could be a catalyst for Amazon to win significant market share from competitors in Brazil.

Earnings Wrap-Up

• Advanced Micro Devices: AMD reported a strong Q3, beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.20 (vs. $1.17 consensus) and revenue of $9.25 billion (vs. $8.76B consensus). Growth was led by the Data Center segment ($4.3B) and Client/Gaming ($4.0B). The Q4 revenue guide of $9.6B (+- $300M) was also above the $9.21B consensus. We will publish a detailed review in the coming days.

• Fortinet: Fortinet delivered a solid Q3, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 (beating $0.63 consensus) and revenue of $1.725B (beating $1.705B estimates). Product revenue accelerated to 18% Y/Y, and the FortiSASE solution was a standout with 100% Y/Y billings growth. The company also hit a record non-GAAP operating margin of 37%. The main concern appears to be the guidance. We will publish a full analysis in the coming days.

• Airbnb: Airbnb reported Q3 gross bookings growth of 14% to $22.9B, with room nights up 9%. This is comparable to Booking Holdings, which saw 8% room night growth (though 10% in its alternative accommodation segment). For Q4, while revenue guidance of 7-10% growth was provided, management expects adjusted EBITDA to be flat-to-down slightly Y/Y, with a margin decline. This is driven by investments in new growth and policy initiatives.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.

Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.

Meta Partners with Blue Owl for Data Center Financing

Meta Platforms has entered into a joint venture with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital to develop and own the massive Hyperion data center campus in Louisiana. Blue Owl funds will own 80% and contribute approximately $7 billion in cash, while Meta retains 20% ownership and contributes land and construction assets previously held for sale. Meta will manage the construction and operation, leasing the facilities back under a four-year initial term with extension options.

Partnering with an infrastructure investment expert like Blue Owl allows Meta to spread the significant capital investment (approx. $27 billion total cost) and risk associated with building the massive infrastructure required for its long-term AI ambitions. It also represents efficient use of assets previously held for sale.

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LVMH Reportedly Considers Fenty Beauty Stake Sale

LVMH is reportedly exploring the sale of its 50% stake in Fenty Beauty, the cosmetics brand co-owned with Rihanna, potentially valuing the brand between $1-$2 billion. Fenty Beauty logged $450 million in net sales in 2024.

While Fenty Beauty had a strong launch ($550 million sales in first 15 months - by the end of 2018) and reportedly doubled revenue in 2022, the 2024 sales figure suggest a downtrend. The lower valuation of what was initially estimated to worth around $2.8 billon also implies slower growth than expected. LVMH’s potential exit aligns with our investment thesis: focusing resources on its core portfolio of iconic, enduring luxury houses rather than potentially more trend-driven, celebrity-anchored brands.

OpenAI Launches “Atlas” AI Browser

OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT Atlas, a new AI-powered web browser built around a conversational interface and agentic capabilities. Atlas allows users to chat directly with websites and automate tasks like filling forms. The launch immediately puts OpenAI in competition with other AI browsers and presents a new challenge to Google’s dominance in search and browsing.

While the announcement contributed to a dip in Google’s stock price, it reinforces the strategic importance of the browser as the gateway to search. Google is currently ahead in integrating generative AI directly into Search (AI Overviews, AI Mode) while Atlas’s key differentiator appears to be its “Agent Mode”. However, such agentic capabilities may face regulatory scrutiny around data privacy and security, as current AI models often have limitations on interacting with external sites and handling personal data.

Here’s how AI Mode responded when we asked it to fill out a form for us:

“No, you cannot delegate online tasks like filing a form to me or any other AI assistant. I cannot access or interact with external websites and online systems, and I cannot handle, store, or transmit personal and sensitive data like the information on a form. This is a fundamental security and privacy limitation built into my design.”

Evolution vs. Playtech Legal Battle Escalates

Evolution intends to add Playtech as a defendant in its ongoing defamation case related to a 2021 report allegedly commissioned by a Playtech subsidiary, which reportedly paid Black Cube £1.8 million to produce it.

Playtech denies that the report was part of a “smear campaign” but confirmed it commissioned an investigation into concerns regarding Evolution’s activities. However, the report’s anonymous origin and the use of covert tactics over four years, including secretly recording conversations, raise questions about Playtech’s true intent.

In our view, this was an attempt to divert Evolution’s focus toward legal matters rather than the lucrative live casino market. Despite this, Evolution has continued innovating and remains the clear market leader. Playtech now faces potential damages.

Other Industry & Portfolio Updates

• Amazon Web Services experienced a significant outage in its US-EAST-1 region, causing widespread disruption before services were restored. The incident highlights AWS’s critical role in internet infrastructure but also underscores the risk for Amazon, as outages can prompt customers to diversify their cloud providers, even partially.

• Waymo School Bus Probe: The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a preliminary investigation into Waymo after a report that one of its vehicles failed to properly yield to a stopped school bus. Waymo stated it has already implemented software improvements. While negative news, incidents like this are expected during the complex rollout of autonomous technology.

• PayPal is increasing its investment in German e-commerce platform Shopware, raising its stake from ~11% to ~41% by acquiring Carlyle Group’s stake. A PayPal representative confirmed the agreement, calling Shopware a “longtime and important partner in Europe”. This move aligns with PayPal’s strategy to embed itself more deeply within the e-commerce infrastructure, expanding its role beyond just payment processing.

That’s a wrap. See you soon.

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Disclaimer: The team does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the newsletter. All statements express personal opinions based on own financial and business analysis. Any estimates or forward looking statements made are inherently unreliable. No statement of opinion is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned.

The content of our newsletter is not a trading or investment advice and we do not provide any personal investment advice tailored to the needs of any recipient. The information provided should not be considered as a specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Securities trading involve risk and you might lose your capital and/or incur other damages. Investors should make their own research and consult their registered investment advisor or financial advisor before taking any investment decision.

Neither the team nor any of its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss however arising, from any use of the information contained herein. Any unauthorized copy of this newsletter or its contents is illegal.

Our posts may contain affiliate links, which means that we might get a commission if you decide to sign-up using any of these links. No extra cost is charged to you.

By subscribing / reading our newsletter or any affiliated social media accounts, you indicate your unconditional acceptance to the above and your unconditional acceptance to our terms and conditions.