A $2 Trillion Semi Forecast, Waymo's Expansion, and One-Tap Commerce
Portfolio News #24
Hi All,
Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.
Anthropic’s Security Push and Amazon’s Supplier Standoff
Amazon-backed Anthropic launched Project Glasswing, a major cybersecurity initiative, after its Claude Mythos Preview model was found to exceed skilled humans at detecting software vulnerabilities. The coalition is impressive, with Apple, Microsoft, Google, AWS, and others joining to use the model for defensive security work. The ability for an AI model to autonomously find critical vulnerabilities at scale has profound implications.
Away from the AI headlines, Amazon is refusing wholesale supplier requests to raise inventory prices. While this protects short-term margins, suppliers are forced to absorb higher tariff and oil-related costs. This dynamic is a double-edged sword that could squeeze selection if suppliers start redirecting inventory elsewhere.
Google: Gemini Rising & Waymo Expanding
Alphabet had a busy week across AI, autonomous vehicles, and cloud.
Alphabet signed a long-term agreement with Broadcom for custom Tensor Processing Units and AI rack components through 2031, a meaningful step toward hardware self-sufficiency. Waymo also launched fully driverless ride-hailing in Nashville with Lyft as its fleet management partner.
On the software front, Google updated its Gemini chatbot to surface a one-touch ‘Help is available’ interface for crisis support when conversations signal potential mental health distress. Additionally, Google Cloud shifted toward outcome-based, ROI-driven deployment models through a deepened enterprise AI partnership with Onix.
Massive Semiconductor Outlook Upgrade
In a new note to clients, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya issued a massive upgrade to the firm’s global semiconductor outlook. He hiked its 2026 revenue target to $1.3 trillion, a $300 billion leap from the estimate the bank provided just four months ago. The bank expects the total semiconductor market to hit the $2 trillion milestone by 2030. This implies a 20% compound annual growth rate through the end of the decade. This is a very important development for our semi holdings like ASML and AMD.
PayPal & Meta Integration
PayPal announced a partnership with Meta. The goal: one-tap shopping on Facebook. Users will be able to purchase products without leaving their feed, with Instagram integration coming soon. Users scroll through Facebook, see a product, and buy it with one tap. Given that both platforms have billions of users, the potential is massive. It is a good move, but if this isn’t shown in the underlying numbers, the price won’t move much.
Other Key Updates
Evolution: Pareto Securities upgraded Evolution to Buy from Hold, raising its price target 17% to 700 SEK. This signals growing conviction in the live casino operator’s near-term earnings trajectory.
Grab: Grab expects its new AI-powered “group ride” feature to tackle rising fuel costs and drive growth. The feature utilizes automated calculations to split fares more accurately, offering passenger savings of up to 40% per trip.
Crocs: Shares are rising as traders rotate into unusually cheap, high-quality names. At just 7x forward earnings and 1.19x trailing revenue, the market is pricing in almost no growth.
The stock market experienced a robust recovery today following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S.. Investors piled back into tech names, lifting Nasdaq 2.8% as geopolitical tensions eased and fear-driven trades reversed.
That’s a wrap. See you soon.