The China revenue drop from 36% to 19% of net system sales in a single quarter is the most important number. The Dutch government lobbying Washington to halt further export control expansion tells you how seriously Veldhoven is taking the revenue risk. ASML scores 75% ROIC on our screener, one of the highest in the entire market, but 52% above our fair value estimate at 61x earnings. The monopoly is real but so is the geopolitical concentration risk.
The China revenue drop from 36% to 19% of net system sales in a single quarter is the most important number. The Dutch government lobbying Washington to halt further export control expansion tells you how seriously Veldhoven is taking the revenue risk. ASML scores 75% ROIC on our screener, one of the highest in the entire market, but 52% above our fair value estimate at 61x earnings. The monopoly is real but so is the geopolitical concentration risk.
ASML it’s definitely not cheap but it remains one of the key beneficiaries of this AI super cycle.