Hi All,
Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.
AMD Financial Analyst Day Highlights
At its Financial Analyst Day, AMD outlined a path to a $1 trillion data center TAM by 2030. The company set ambitious long-term targets, including a >35% revenue CAGR and a >35% non-GAAP operating margin in the next three to five years. This growth is predicated on a >60% data center revenue CAGR (and >80% for AI), with goals to capture >50% server CPU revenue share and >40% client revenue share. The strategy is supported by the MI350 Series (fastest ramping product in the company’s history) and the future release of its MI400 Series and the Helios rack-scale solution which are expected to launch in 2026. We will cover AMD’s Investor Day in more detail next week.
Adyen Investor Day Highlights
At its Investor Day, Adyen laid out its new financial targets, projecting revenue to grow at a ~20% CAGR and its EBITDA margin to expand to >55% by 2028 (up from 50% currently). Management’s confidence is based on its massive addressable market, which it estimates at €26 trillion for payments (of which it has ~5% share) and a separate €127 billion annual revenue opportunity in Financial Products. We will cover Adyen’s Investor Day in more detail next week.
PayPal KBW Conference Highlights
At the KBW Fintech Payments Conference, PayPal outlined its growth strategy, focusing on omnichannel expansion and AI. The “PayPal Everywhere” initiative is gaining traction, with a repositioned debit card offering 5% cashback and a new NFC tap-to-pay solution launched in Germany. A key new initiative, “PayPal World,” aims to create a global wallet network, expanding PayPal’s reach from 500 million to over 2 billion customers.
Management also highlighted Venmo’s 20% revenue growth (tracking toward $1.7B in 2025 and targeting $2 billion by 2027) and stated they will be the first wallet integrated with OpenAI and other AI platforms for agentic commerce. In terms of BNPL, management highlighted that it is expected to generate $40 billion in TPV this year. Additionally, customers who use BNPL drive a 30% increase in checkout TPV and 5x the ARPA compared to checkout-only customers. BNPL penetration is still very low, at only 5-10% of the customer base, representing a significant opportunity.
Allegion Baird Conference Highlights
At the Baird conference, Allegion management provided an update on its market outlook. The non-residential business remains resilient, with stable mid-single-digit growth in its core institutional vertical. Within the commercial vertical, management is seeing early signs of recovery, and the data center segment, though small, continues to grow. The main headwind remains the residential market (20-25% of total revenue), which has been flat to down low single-digits for the past three years.
Management also highlighted the accelerating adoption of electronic locks, a trend supported by strong partnerships with Apple, Google, and Samsung to integrate digital credentials into smartphone wallets. Management reiterated that its “Unique specification writing capability” remains a core competitive advantage that creates durable end-user demand.
Other Industry & Portfolio Updates
Alphabet’s Waymo has begun offering public robotaxi rides on freeways in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. This demonstrates the Waymo’s ability to safely handle high-speed routes, which enables faster, longer-distance travel.
Amazon unveiled its new “Amazon Business Assistant” at its Reshape conference. Powered by AWS Bedrock, this AI tool provides conversational support to help organizations discover savings and automate purchasing tasks.
The AI CAPEX race continues as Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in AI infrastructure, aiming to build custom data centers coming online in 2026.
That’s a wrap. See you soon.