From AMD’s 2nm Scale-Up and ASML’s High-NA Launch to Intuit’s Layoffs
Portfolio News #29
Hi All,
Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days.
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AMD: Winning the Next-Gen Fabric Game
AMD has begun ramping production of its next-generation EPYC data center processor, codenamed “Venice,” utilizing TSMC’s advanced 2nm process technology. This marks the industry’s first HPC product to enter 2nm production. AMD is ramping up production in Taiwan with future expansion planned for TSMC’s Arizona facility.
AMD also announced over $10 billion in investments across the Taiwan ecosystem to co-develop next-gen 2.5D bridge interconnect technology (EFB architecture) with ASE, SPIL, and PTI, leading up to the high-volume deployment of its “Helios” rack-scale platform in H2 2026. The roadmap also introduces “Verano,” a 6th Gen EPYC processor utilizing LPDDR memory designed for power-constrained applications. CEO Lisa Su revealed that soaring demand for agentic artificial intelligence and inferencing has dramatically accelerated these server compute requirements.
INTUIT: The Software Transition Tax
Intuit delivered a modest Q3 top-line beat, with revenue reaching $8.56 billion (+10% YoY). Global Business Solutions remained the primary driver (+15% to $3.3B), powered by strong momentum in QuickBooks Online Accounting (+22% YoY). However, the Consumer segment experienced a visible deceleration, with TurboTax growing just 7% versus 11% in prior periods.
While management raised full-year FY26 revenue guidance to $21.34B–$21.37B, operating margins compressed from 56.0% to 54.7%. To offset this and streamline operations, Intuit announced a major 17% workforce reduction, which will incur $300M to $340M in restructuring charges. We will shortly publish a full earnings review and inform you if we are taking any action in our portfolio.
Alphabet: Monetization vs. CapEx Reality
Alphabet’s recent Google I/O updates highlighted multi-faceted revenue opportunities, including its new $100 AI Ultra plan tailored for developers and power users, app integrations across Gmail/YouTube, and Gemini Spark. On the corporate infrastructure side, Google Cloud partnered with Thales to establish a sovereign cloud solution in Germany.
Simultaneously, alternative ecosystem scaling is picking up speed through a massive joint venture with Blackstone, where Blackstone will invest an initial $5 billion in equity to build data center capacity powered directly by Google’s custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). By putting their custom TPU chips inside these Blackstone data centers, Google is establishing its own hardware footprint to challenge Nvidia’s monopoly on AI chips.
ASML: The Ultimate Bottleneck in the Chip Super-Cycle
Global semiconductor supply remains incredibly tight as demand from AI, satellites, and robotics outpaces industry production—a trend ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet expects will drive a prolonged investment cycle lasting into 2028. ASML is poised to release its first batch of advanced logic and memory chips produced using its cutting-edge High Numerical Aperture (High-NA) machines within the next few months, which is expected to drastically reduce patterning costs, product defects, and cycle times.
Analysis suggests ASML’s 2027 capacity can support a >50% YoY expansion in leading-edge wafer output. Additionally, the company signed an agreement with Tata Electronics to deploy its lithography tools in an $11 billion chip fabrication plant in Gujarat, India.
Other Key Updates
Amazon’s multi-year effort to build custom in-house hardware is gaining significant ground: both Anthropic and OpenAI have signed agreements to rent large-scale capacity on Amazon’s custom Trainium chips.
On the industrial software side, AWS finalized a multi-year cloud expansion deal with AVEVA to host its CONNECT platform and leverage AI analytics via Amazon Bedrock.
Allegion announced the launch of its “Campus-to-Community Student Living” solutions, a mobile-first hardware and software integration ecosystem aimed at the off-campus student housing market. Built around Schlage’s Resident Key technology integrated into Apple Wallet and Google Wallet, the platform allows end-users to seamlessly use standard smartphones and smartwatches to manage security across residences, common amenities, and campus facilities. The rollout follows successful real-world testing with property managers at the University of Oklahoma, demonstrating optimized property operations and a visible reduction in after-hours lockouts.
Evolution AB has commenced a massive share repurchase program of up to €2 billion on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange to significantly reduce its outstanding share capital.
Grab Holdings: Grab is consolidating the Indonesian digital lender Superbank after Singtel transfers its stake. Superbank recently posted its first full-year profit and has grown to over six million customers. It will be fully folded into Grab’s Financial Services segment, significantly expanding their digital banking footprint and cross-selling potential in Indonesia.
That’s a wrap. See you soon.