Autodesk has delivered a strong fiscal 2026 finish. Q4 revenue rose 19% year-over-year (14% YoY in constant currency, excluding the impact of the new transaction model) and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 38% (Q4’25: 37%), underscoring the resilience of its subscription-based model and the continued strength of demand across its platform.
Additionally, the company finished the year with a normalized EBITDA of $1.99 billion for FY26. For context, in our valuation two years ago, we estimated FY26 EBITDA of $1.66 billion. While Autodesk significantly outperformed our expectations, the stock price remains at nearly the same levels, as the broader market re-rated Autodesk and other software companies lower due to the narrative surrounding the existential risk of AI.
In the last quarter, management struck a constructive but measured tone, pointing to broad-based momentum, particularly in AECO, construction, and emerging markets. However, they guided FY27 with appropriate caution due to temporary disruption from its sales optimization plan. Even so, the underlying fundamentals remain strong: full-year revenue reached $7.21 billion, free cash flow increased 54% to $2.41 billion, and Autodesk continues to generate substantial cash while maintaining disciplined profitability.
In this valuation update, we assess Autodesk’s fair value and determine whether the current stock price provides an opportunity to increase our position in this high-quality compounder.