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Heavy Moat Investments's avatar

Great analysis, but I'd like to add some insights that in my opinion were left out, but are vital to Adyen. I shared it in my own deep dive, I hope its fine if I link to it here( https://heavymoatinvestments.substack.com/p/adyen-adyey-powering-global-commerce). I can't post a picture in the comments, but the vital part missing is that Adyen does NOT primarily compete with Stripe and Braintree. To quote my article: "Stripe is focused on SMBs, like this blog you are reading right now. Adyen, on the other hand, focuses on multinationals with global operations. Braintree is owned by PayPal and thus is biased towards PayPal solutions.". Furthermore these modern acquirers only hold around a 10% share in the total payments processing market, with 90% in the hands of legacy players who are losing market share. The real opportunity is not in competiting with Stripe and braintree, but in taking share off legacy players that can't offer what modern, digital businesses need.

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StockOpine's avatar

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We agree that Adyen is indeed taking share from legacy players. However, we disagree on the point that Adyen does not primarily compete with Stripe.

In its 2022 letter, Stripe mentioned that more than 100 companies process over $1 billion each and have been expanding by more than 50% since 2018. This includes large enterprises like Amazon, BMW, and Toyota. The 2023 letter makes similar comments, mentioning names like Zara, Lotus, and Urban Outfitters.

Based on this, we estimate that at least $150 billion, or 15% of Stripe's processed volume, comes from large enterprises—though this could be significantly higher. Given this size and growth rate, we believe it’s clear that Adyen does compete with Stripe on large enterprises.

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